NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 30 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC. Three new regions were numbered today: 9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and 9332 (N08E24). Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb. Regions 9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to produce significant flare activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51), which remains the largest active region on the disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC. The greater-than-10 MeV proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at 30/0035 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28. Originating event characteristics, associated proton event, interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument, and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock passage at earth within the next day or so. Active and isolated minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1. Diminished activity to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2. III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 160 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/160 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 020/015-012/010-007/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
