Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 30, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 30 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC.  Three
new regions were numbered today:  9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and
9332 (N08E24).  Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint
C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb.  Regions
9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in
Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to
produce significant flare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly
numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51),
which remains the largest active region on the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC.  The greater-than-10 MeV
proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at
30/0035 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated
shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28. 
Originating event characteristics, associated proton event,
interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument,
and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock
passage at earth within the next day or so.  Active and isolated
minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field
thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1.  Diminished activity
to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 160
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  160/155/160
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  020/015-012/010-007/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.