NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Dec 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Dec 30 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event this period was a C5/Sf flare that occurred in Region 9283 (S11W28) at 30/1039Z. This region has been in slow decay over the past 2-3 days, but continues to produce occasional C-class flares. The largest active region on the visible disk is Region 9289 (S07E30) which has now developed into an EKI beta-gamma group nearing 900 millionths of white light area. Frequent brightenings were observed and occasional low C-class flares occurred, but magnetic complexity appears moderate at best. New region 9292 (N25E63) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Large Region 9289 will continue to produce C-class activity with a good chance of an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Dec 182 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 185/175/170 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/010-005/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
