NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 30 Apr 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Apr 30 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z

to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare occurred at

30/0822 UTC. The source of this event seems to be just beyond the

southeast limb. Several C-class flares also occurred during the past

24 hours. Sources included disk Regions 9914 (N05W80), 9919

(N14W28), and probably one or more unnumbered east limb regions. New

Region 9929 (N22E16) emerged on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. A general trend of increased activity is expected as

the east limb regions rotate onto the disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May

Class M    30/40/50

Class X    01/01/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Apr 153

Predicted   01 May-03 May  155/160/165

90 Day Mean        30 Apr 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  005/006-008/012-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05