NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 03 2330 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with Region 9632 rotating beyond
the west limb today.  Region 9648 (S05E64) produced the largest
flare during the period, a C8/SF at 02/0101 UTC.  Region 9636
(N13W56) produced C6/SF occurring at 03/0643 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 558 km/s.  A
C-class flare was recorded coming from Region 9645 (S18W27) and an
optical flare was also seen coming from Region 9634 (N11W63).  Two
new regions were numbered today, 9649 (S06E70) and 9650 (S12E72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be
moderate.  Region 9636 is capable of producing M-class flares. Old
Region 9608 is returning on the southeast limb. It has a history of
producing M-class activity as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A CME
passage resulting from the M9 flare and associated activity on the
southwest limb early on the 1st is suspected of being the source.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
Flux levels remained above event level at time of bulletin issue.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
day as CME effects subside.  Quiet to unsettled conditions should
prevail on the last two days of period.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end during day one of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    75/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     99/75/25
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 192
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  195/210/210
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  024/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  035/055
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  015/020-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/15
Minor storm           40/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor storm           50/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01