NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 March 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 03 2340 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly
numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a
moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the
intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No
significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region
9370 (N09E51) was also numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it
continues to develop.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to
minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME
passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME
effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight
chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach high levels during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 140
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  020/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01