NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 3 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 03 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. A few weak C-class events
occurred, none of which were correlated with optical reports.
SOHO/EIT and available H-alpha imagery suggest that Region 9845
(N18W33) was the likely source of most activity, although Region
9851 (S06E29) appears to have produced a C2 event at 03/0256 UTC.
Three new regions were numbered today: 9854 (N11W09), 9855
(N12E25), and 9856 (S07E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with Region 9845 remaining a possible source of
isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with the onset of high
speed stream effects from a recurrent coronal hole during the next
24-36 hours. Active and isolated minor storm conditions are
expected to occur thereafter through the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 183
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 185/180/175
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 010/010-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/45
Minor storm 10/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
