NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2001 Jun 03 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2001

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event was a

C2/Sf from Region 9484 (S06E08) at 03/2011 UTC.  This region

continues to maintain some magnetic complexity and slowly increase

in size and spot count, currently in a Dai/beta-gamma configuration.

Other regions that exhibited activity today include 9486 (N28W22),

and newly numbered 9488 (S18E61). Region 9488 was split from Region

9485 (S23E46) based on a better view of the region as it rotates

onto the visible disk, and is presently the second largest region

after 9487 (N19E60), which also grew in size and spot count today,

but produced no activity of note.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

predominantly low for the period, but with a chance for isolated

moderate flare activity possible for the developing regions noted in

Section 1A above.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with one

active period observed at higher latitudes during 03/1500-1800 UTC.

Coronal hole high speed stream effects have exhibited a weakening

trend throughout the day, but remain in progress.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the

period.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

Class M    30/35/35

Class X    01/05/05

Proton     01/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jun 145

Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  150/155/155

90 Day Mean        03 Jun 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  018/021

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/008-008/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01