NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 03 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  The largest
flare of the period was optically uncorrelated, an M1 occurred at
02/2148 UTC.  Region 9767 (S23E23) produced a C5/1f at 03/0220 UTC
that had an associated radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity
of 410 km/s.  LASCO imagery doesn't depict the presence of an
associated halo with this event. Although this region has been
spotless for several days, Region 9758 (N13W84),produced several Sf
optical flares today.  Other activity included a couple small
C-class flares from regions 9770 (N09W41) and 9754 (S05W81).  New
Region 9772 (S18E83) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress,
maximum flux was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period.  Day three could see some isolated active conditions due to
the ejecta indicated by the Type II radio sweep mentioned in 1A. 
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    70/60/60
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     99/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 220
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  220/215/210
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 220
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  006/008-004/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05