NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
occurred, many of which were optically uncorrelated to active
regions on the visible disk. The likely source of this activity
remains an area at, or beyond, the northeast limb. C-class subflares
also occurred in Regions 9289 (S07W25), 9290 (N29W60), and 9294
(N22E43).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class activity is expected and there is a small chance
of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels during the three-day
forecast period in response to a coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 170
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01