NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 03 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  C4/Sf flares

occurred in Region 9807 (S27E26) at 03/0553 UTC and in Region 9802

(S14W31) at 03/1519 UTC, these being the largest flares for the

period.  Region 9807 has shown some decay since yesterday in spot

complex.  The beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure in Region 9802

remains intact.  Region 9800 had no optically correlated flares

today and continues to show decay in both umbral coverage and

magnetic complexity.  New Regions 9813 (S24W13), 9814 (N07E15), and

9815 (N12E70) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

predominantly low to moderate levels.  A slight chance for major

flare activity is possible.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be quiet to unsettled through days one and two of the

forecast period.  Day three may see active levels with possible

minor storm conditions due to the onset of a favorably positioned

coronal hole.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

Class M    50/50/50

T-ñalass X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Feb 233

Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  235/230/225

90 Day Mean        03 Feb 225

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  014/018

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/25

Minor storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/30

Minor storm           05/05/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/05