Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 3, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 03 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity became moderate. Region 9334 (N11E54)
produced an M2/1f flare at 3/0006Z. Small centimetric radio bursts,
a Type II and IV radio sweep, and a CME accompanied this flare. The
only other activity of note was a long duration C1 flare and CME
that appeared to originate from regions near the NE limb. New
Regions 9335 (N08E68). 9336 (S10W01), and 9337 (S27E76), were also
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 9330 (N26E18) and 9334 (N11E54) still have potential for an
isolated M class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet, but trending towards unsettled
conditions late in the three day period as a coronal hole moves into
a geoeffectively favorable position. Ejecta from today's CME's do
not appear earthbound.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 164
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  007/008-007/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.