NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The NOAA/SXI test
imagery observed an M2 event from Region 9714 at 02/2206 UTC as it
rotated around the southwest limb of the sun.  Region 9715 (N04W49)
continues to show a slight decay from yesterday.  New Region 9727
(S22E68) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 9715
and 9718 (S07E03).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible for 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 235
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  230/225/225
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/010-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01