NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at the low level. Very little
eruptive activity occurred, but the disk did experience considerable
change from yesterday. Six new regions were numbered. They are: 9250
(S11W80), 9251 (S22W34), 9252 (S02W36), 9253 (S14E11), 9254
(N10E59), and 9255 (N21E64). All are simple and small.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A prolonged period of
southward IMF caused the weak disturbance during the latter half of
the interval.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 164
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  160/160/155
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01