NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels this period.
Region 9563 (N24E15) produced an M1/Sn at 03/0307Z. Rapid growth was
noted in this region's size and complexity over the past 36 hours.
Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9557 (S21W26),
9561 (S13E10), and newly numbered Region 9567 (S15W02). New Region
9568 (S19W50) was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels. Region 9563 possesses good potential for
another small M-class flare. Isolated C-class flare activity is
possible from several regions on the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions prevailed
before a shock impacted ACE at 03/0626Z.  This shock was likely
associated with the filament eruption and CME on 31 July. The impact
was relatively weak with no significant southward Bz, consequently,
only isolated active periods were observed.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods likely.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 132
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  012/012-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05