NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C9/Sf at 29/0629 UTC in Region 9246 (S12E33). The flare
was associated with an intensity one Type II radio sweep. This is a
rapidly developing D-type sunspot group that has produced several
C-class subflares. Region 9236 (N19W79) continues its decay as it
approaches the west limb and has not produced significant activity
during the past day. The large bushy filament centered at about
S35W45 erupted sometime between 28/1653 UTC and 29/0649 UTC. No
other associated activity was apparent. New Region 9247 (N13E20) was
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in either Region
9242 and 9246.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
Severe storm conditions were observed at many stations during the
29/0300-0600 UTC period. Solar wind parameters were relatively
benign suggesting that this activity was associated with the
dissipation of energy stored in the geomagnetic field over the past
few days. The greater that 10 MeV proton event ended at 29/0200 UTC
(begin 24/1520 UTC and peak of 942 sfu at 26/2030 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Active to storm periods are
possible at local night time over the next 24 to 48 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 188
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  185/180/170
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  018/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  040/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  015/025-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05