NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels.  Region 9715 (N05
E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares.  The
largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC.  This region remains
magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has
grown in area coverage, spot number and extent.  Region 9715
produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf
at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC.  Region 9717 (N04E53) and
Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a
single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively..
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major
M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare.  Region 9718 has also
shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  Quiet levels are expected for the
first day of the period.  Late on day two or early on day three the
CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at
Earth.  With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
at higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    80/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 216
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  210/215/220
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-012/015-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/30
Minor storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/45/45
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/10