NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 29 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred, mostly in Region 9880 (N08W76). Region 9885 (N12E44) is
the largest sunspot group currently on the disk. It is growing in
sunspot area and number and is developing a delta magnetic
configuration in the central spot complex. New Region 9886 (N11E59)
is a small bipolar group just to the east of 9885. New Regions 9887
(N01E66) and 9888 (S11E70) were also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9885 seems to be the most likely candidate for
M-class activity. Region 9880 may also produce an M-flare before it
rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are
expected by 01 April as an equatorial coronal hole moves into a
geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 181
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 180/175/170
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
