Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 29, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Newly numbered Region
9329 (S10E50) produced the only notable activity of the day, a C5/Sf
event at 29/1540 UTC.  Lesser, uncorrelated C-class activity also
occurred throughout the period.  Region 9321 (S03W57) remains the
largest region on the disk, though somewhat reduced in white light
area since yesterday, currently in an Eai Beta configuration.  Other
active regions are little changed from yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance of isolated moderate-level activity
possible from Region 9321, or Region 9313 (S04W79) as it rotates 
behind the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
An isolated period of minor storming was observed at Boulder during
29/0000-0300 UTC, followed by a single active period thereafter. 
The greater-than-10 MeV proton event which began last period has
persisted throughout the day, reaching a maximum flux value of 49
pfu at 29/0655 UTC.  An associated polar cap absorption event was
reported for the period of 29/0649-1600 UTC, with maximum absorption
of 1.9 decibles on the Thule 30Mhz riometer.  The proton event
remains in progress at the end of period, with a value of about 12
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels during the first
day. Shock arrival from the CME activity of 28 January is expected
to arrive on mid-to-late day one, with isolated minor storming
possible through day two.  Activity is expected to taper off
to mainly unsettled levels by day three.  The proton event
currently in progress is expected to end during day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     25/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 165
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  160/160/155
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  013/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  015/015-020/018-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.