NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 29 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 9329 (S10E50) produced the only notable activity of the day, a C5/Sf event at 29/1540 UTC. Lesser, uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred throughout the period. Region 9321 (S03W57) remains the largest region on the disk, though somewhat reduced in white light area since yesterday, currently in an Eai Beta configuration. Other active regions are little changed from yesterday. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance of isolated moderate-level activity possible from Region 9321, or Region 9313 (S04W79) as it rotates behind the west limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storming was observed at Boulder during 29/0000-0300 UTC, followed by a single active period thereafter. The greater-than-10 MeV proton event which began last period has persisted throughout the day, reaching a maximum flux value of 49 pfu at 29/0655 UTC. An associated polar cap absorption event was reported for the period of 29/0649-1600 UTC, with maximum absorption of 1.9 decibles on the Thule 30Mhz riometer. The proton event remains in progress at the end of period, with a value of about 12 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels during the first day. Shock arrival from the CME activity of 28 January is expected to arrive on mid-to-late day one, with isolated minor storming possible through day two. Activity is expected to taper off to mainly unsettled levels by day three. The proton event currently in progress is expected to end during day one. III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb Class M 45/40/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 25/05/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jan 165 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 013/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 015/015-020/018-012/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor storm 15/20/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor storm 15/20/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
