NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Aug 29 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9600 (N17E58) produced two M1 x-ray events during the period. Region 9600 and 9601 (N12E58) are very close to each other in location and have produced sympathetic flaring between the two regions. Region 9591 (S19W20) still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and a fairly large area of approximately 590 millionths. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9591, 9600, and 9601. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the forecast period. Active conditions can be expected on the third day due to recurrent coronal hole activity. III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Aug 197 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 200/200/205 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 006/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
