Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 29, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9600 (N17E58)
produced two M1 x-ray events during the period. Region 9600 and 9601
(N12E58) are very close to each other in location and have produced
sympathetic flaring between the two regions. Region 9591 (S19W20)
still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and a fairly
large area of approximately 590 millionths. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9591,
9600, and 9601.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the
forecast period. Active conditions can be expected on the third day
due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 197
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  200/200/205
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 155
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  006/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.