NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels.  Region 9715
(N05E17) produced a major flare during the period.  This impulsive
M6/1b event peaked at 28/1635 UTC, and was associated with a Type II
radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 674 km/s, a Type
IV radio sweep, and a 450 pfu tenflare.  This event also produced a
partial halo CME based on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Other notable flares
from this region were an M2/1f flare at 27/2121 UTC and a C7 x-ray
flare (optically correlated using SXI imagery) at 28/1543 UTC with
an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock
velocity of 889 km/s.  Region 9715 continues to show significant
growth as evidenced by a delta configuration magnetic classification
that has become evident during the period.  Four new regions were
numbered today, Regions 9718 (S07E70), 9719 (N03E03), 9720 (S18E72),
and 9721 (N10E78).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began on 22/2320 UTC, ended at 28/2100
UTC (max pfu of 18,900 occurred at 24/0555 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of the
forecast period.  The partial halo CME from the M6/1b (mentioned in
1A above) is expected to pass late on day three with brief minor
storming periods possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/25
Proton     15/20/25
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 199
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  205/210/220
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/005-006/008-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05