Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 May 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
May 28, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred. Although no optical flare reports were received, at least
one of the C-class flares (C1 at 28/1556 UTC) was observed by HESSI
to be associated with departed Region 9461 (N22, L=162). All of the
regions currently on the disk are relatively inactive. New regions
numbered include 9479 (N26W56), 9480 (S14E52), and 9481 (N17W44).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Sustained
southward Bz contributed to active conditions from 28/0900 to 2100
UTC. This activity appears to be associated with the passage of the
structure (CME) following yesterday's shock.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 143
Predicted   29 May-31 May  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        28 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  010/015-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.