NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only two C-class events
occurred during the period. The largest event was an optically
uncorrelated C7 flare at 28/1353 UTC. The most magnetically complex
region on the disk, 9543 (S23W89) will rotate over the western limb
during the next day. The rest of the regions were unremarkable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with a single period
of unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2
MeV flux can be expected to reach moderate to high levels during the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 116
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 153
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01