NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 28 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9788 (N18W85)
produced a C9/Sf at 28/0310 UTC. Region 9800 (N07E23) has increased
in size and magnetic complexity to a Beta-gamma configuration with
some mixing in the leader spot. Region 9802 (S16E49) has increased
in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration and has grown
in area size and spot count. A 25 degree disappearing filament
(S29E18) occurred between 27/2116 and 28/1318 UTC. Three new
regions were numbered today: Region 9804 (S19E27), Region 9805
(N14E64), and Region 9806 (N11E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9800 and 9802 have the potential for M-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater
than 10 MeV protons have returned to background levels after the
enhancement of 27/1710 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 260
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 255/260/260
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 008/010-010/012-005/004
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
