NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC
associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay
prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the
rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or
declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare
from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10
MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31
January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the
first half of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 168
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  165/160/160
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  007/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  007/004-010/008-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05