NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 28 Feb 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 28 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare occurred at
28/0012 UTC and was associated with an eruptive limb event near
S25W90. Several C-class subflares also occurred. Regions 9844
(N22W34) and 9845 (N18E08) grew in sunspot number and area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 204
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 200/200/200
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01