NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. An 11 degree
filament (S17W05) disappeared between 28/1146-1323 UTC. A
corresponding CME was observed by the LASCO imagery. Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 9364 (S10W16) and 9365
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the next two days of the forecast.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three as a
result of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 132
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/008-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/06
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05