Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 28, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  An 11 degree
filament (S17W05) disappeared between 28/1146-1323 UTC.  A
corresponding CME was observed by the LASCO imagery.  Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 9364 (S10W16) and 9365
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the next two days of the forecast.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three as a
result of today's CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 132
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  008/008-005/005-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/06
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/40
Minor storm           10/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.