NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several, mostly small C-class
flares were observed. Region 9289 (S06E57) has evolved quickly into
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk. It now
exhibits an "Eko" beta-gamma spot group nearing 800 millionths of
white light area, and was responsible for most of the C-class
flares. Region 9279 (S12W77) produced a C2/sf flare at 28/1429Z with
an associated Type II sweep. Region 9283 (S11W03) also produced
isolated C-class flares, the largest being a C5/sf at 27/2218Z.
Perhaps the most impressive event of the period was a large, full
halo CME on LASCO imagery at 28/1230Z. There was no optical
correlation  of the source - the event appears to have originated
from the backside of the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9289 has potential for isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    50/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 185
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  185/185/185
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01