NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  There were three
M-class events observed during the period.  Region 9591 (S19W06)
produced an M1/1N at 28/0012 UTC.  Region 9601 (N12E73) produced an
M1/Sf at 28/0840 UTC and an M1/Sn at 28/1611 UTC with an associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweep.  Region 9591 remains the largest
region on the disk and maintains its Fki beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  A major flare is possible from Region 9591.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 199
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  205/205/210
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 154
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01