NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 27 2250 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were numerous
C-class flares observed during the period.  The vast majority of 
these flares appeared to originate from source regions beyond the 
east limb (based on SXI imagery).  Region 9715 (N05E30) produced 
a single optically correlated C6/Sf flare at 27/1552 UTC.  
This region has continued to show growth in magnetic complexity and 
areal coverage. Region 9715 remains the most noteworthy region on the
visible disk. New Region 9717 (N06E78) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low to moderate levels.  Region 9715 has the potential
to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event (began 22/2320 UTC, max 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC)
remains in progress although flux values have been oscillating
across event threshold levels throughout the past ten hours of the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible during the forecast period due to a southern
hemisphere coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     99/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 190
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  195/205/210
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  004/005-008/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01