NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. All disk regions have been
relatively inactive. Region 9463 (N08W51), the largest sunspot group
presently on the disk, and Region 9468 (N06W16) have decayed since
yesterday. New Regions 9476 (S22W68), 9477 (S16E20), and 9478
(N14E15) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An SI was
observed at the Boulder ground magnetometer at 27/1456 UTC following
a shock observed in the solar wind at ACE at 27/1418 UTC. Timing of
the structure seems consistent with the M1/1N/Type II event which
occurred on 24 May.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an occasional active period
during the passage of the CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 147
Predicted   28 May-30 May  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        27 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01