NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 27 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9880 (N08W50) produced
the largest event of the period – a C3 flare at 27/1302Z. This
Beta-Gamma region increased in size and complexity with considerable
new flux emergence in the past 24 hours. Region 9878 (N10W13)
produced minor C-class flares and maintains a Delta configuration in
its trailing sunspots. New Regions 9884 (S18E38) and 9885 (N11E69)
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9878 and 9880 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated, high
latitude active conditions early in the period. The coronal hole,
high speed stream which began early yesterday has gradually
decreased.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 169
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 008/008-005/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
