NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2001

:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jan 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated,
low-level C-class subflares occurred. Minor spot growth was reported
in Regions 9321 (S05W10) and 9325 (N11E37). The remaining regions
were simply-structured and stable including newly numbered Region
9327 (N17E47).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 167
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  165/165/160
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/004-007/004-007/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
.