Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 27 Feb 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
February 27, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 27 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at
27/1558 UTC in Region 9839 (S18W75). This region also produced a few
C-class subflares. Growth in Regions 9842 (S19W63) and 9846 (S03W82)
appears to have stabilized and neither area has produced significant
flares in the past day. New Region 9850 (N27W51) emerged on the
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Another low-level M-class flare is possible in any one
of a number of regions, including 9839 (S18W75), 9842 (S19W63), 9845
(N17E21), and 9846 (S03W82).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 199
Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 195/190/190
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/008§ÿ©0APredicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.