NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 27 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 27 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z

to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at

27/1558 UTC in Region 9839 (S18W75). This region also produced a few

C-class subflares. Growth in Regions 9842 (S19W63) and 9846 (S03W82)

appears to have stabilized and neither area has produced significant

flares in the past day. New Region 9850 (N27W51) emerged on the

disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Another low-level M-class flare is possible in any one

of a number of regions, including 9839 (S18W75), 9842 (S19W63), 9845

(N17E21), and 9846 (S03W82).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           27 Feb 199

Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  195/190/190

90 Day Mean        27 Feb 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  008/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  006/008§ÿ©0APredicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01