NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Dec 2000
:Product: 1227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Dec 27 2210 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9289 (S08E64) produced an M4/1f at 27/1544 UTC. This region also produced several mid-level C-class flares throughout the day, as did Region 9283 (S11E11), which is now exhibiting a somewhat more complex magnetic configuration that may indicate emergence of two bipolar subgroups in close proximity within the active region. Meanwhile, Region 9280 (N10W31) has diminished in activity, areal coverage and spot count, and Region 9289 has replaced it as the largest group on the disk (330 millionths, in a Dao-beta configuration). Other activity observed this period included a weak Type II radio sweep at 27/0347 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests the source to be a CME event from behind the west limb, which does not appear earth-directed. New Region 9290 (N30E31) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A somewhat increased chance for isolated M-class activity is expected for regions 9283 and 9289. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring an earth-directed CME event. III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 188 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 .
