Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 27, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 27 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9289
(S08E64) produced an M4/1f at 27/1544 UTC.  This region also
produced several mid-level C-class flares throughout the day, as did
Region 9283 (S11E11), which is now exhibiting a somewhat more
complex magnetic configuration that may indicate emergence of two
bipolar subgroups in close proximity within the active region. 
Meanwhile, Region 9280 (N10W31) has diminished in activity, areal
coverage and spot count, and Region 9289 has replaced it as the
largest group on the disk (330 millionths, in a Dao-beta
configuration).  Other activity observed this period included a weak
Type II radio sweep at 27/0347 UTC.  SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests the
source to be a CME event from behind the west limb, which does not
appear earth-directed.  New Region 9290 (N30E31) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  A somewhat increased chance for isolated M-class
activity is expected for regions 9283 and 9289.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
an earth-directed CME event.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 188
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.