NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. An M1 flare was
observed at 27/0638 UTC. The LASCO images indicate the event was
possibly from new Region 9601 (N10E85). Region 9591 (S18E07)
remains strong and continues its beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Four new regions were numbered today as regions 9598 (S18W75), 9599
(S18E65), 9600 (N17E82), and 9601.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9591 is capable of producing M-class events with
an isolated major flare possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A shock passed the
ACE spacecraft at 27/1920 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 37 nt
at the Earth at 27/1952 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to active to minor storm conditions on 28 August as a
result of the X5 event on 25 August. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected on 29 August with quiet to unsettled conditions
returning on 30 August.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 192
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 195/200/200
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 030/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01