NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Mar 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Mar 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C3/Sf from 9878 (N08E01). This region continues to slowly
develop in size and complexity. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9881 (S03W62). A strong CME observed off the west
limb at around 26/1400Z, appears to have originated from behind the
SW limb. Remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in
decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9878 has potential to produce isolated M-class
flares. Occasional C-class flares are expected from Region 9881.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet early in the period, but
became unsettled following the onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream at around 26/0100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods at high latitudes. This weak, coronal hole
related disturbance should begin to subside by day two.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 166
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 208
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
