NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Two M-class events
occurred during the period.  Region 9401 (N22E43) produced an M2/1N
event at 26/0239Z and Region 9393 (N18E27) produced an M2/1F event
at 26/1326Z.  Several other C-class events occurred.  Significant
growth was observed in Region 9393 and the region now has a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Growth was also observed
in Regions 9390 (N15W08), 9396 (S06W32), and 9401.  These numerous
regions above have been producing the bulk of activity during the
period.  New region 9403 (S13E62) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with the increasing chance of an X-class event occurring. 
Continued M-class events are expected from any one of several
different active regions now on the sun.  Region 9393 displays the
best potential for producing an X-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility of
isolated active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 264
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  225/230/235
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01