NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a
long-duration, optically uncorrelated C7 x-ray flare.  This flare
most likely originated from behind the southeast limb and was
probably associated with a large CME observed in the SOHO/LASCO
instrument. The remainder of the period was typified by small
C-class subflares and a general decay of the observable sunspot
regions.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled and active periods
observed at higher latitudes. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active over the next three days.  A
high speed stream from a recurrent coronal hole should reach the
Earth late on the first day of the period and continue over days two
and three.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to
remain at high levels, at least through the first day of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    30/30/40
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 168
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  160/160/155
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  010/015-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01