NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred. Region 9553 (N13W05) showed
significant growth, almost doubling its area during the last 24
hours. However, it remained simply structured. Region 9543 (S24W70)
continued to gradually decay. The remaining sunspot groups were
small, stable and simply structured. New Regions 9557 (S18E72) and
9558 (N18W30) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred due to coronal effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels early in
the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 123
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 154
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  021/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  010/012-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01