NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred. Region 9553 (N13W05) showed
significant growth, almost doubling its area during the last 24
hours. However, it remained simply structured. Region 9543 (S24W70)
continued to gradually decay. The remaining sunspot groups were
small, stable and simply structured. New Regions 9557 (S18E72) and
9558 (N18W30) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred due to coronal effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels early in
the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 123
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 021/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01