NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2001
:Product: 0126RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 26 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 9325 (N10E50) produced an M1/1b flare at 26/0607 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. This region was simply structured and showed no significant changes during the period. Region 9313 (S07W40) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares and showed no significant changes in size or structure. Region 9320 (S25W61), a small A-type group, produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1206 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep, but was otherwise stable. New Region 9326 (N27W27) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. However, there will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare sometime during the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the period. However, an isolated active period occurred during 26/0700 - 0900 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jan 166 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/007-007/007-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 .
