Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 26, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jan 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 9325
(N10E50) produced an M1/1b flare at 26/0607 UTC associated with a
Type II radio sweep. This region was simply structured and showed no
significant changes during the period. Region 9313 (S07W40) produced
isolated B- and C-class subflares and showed no significant changes
in size or structure. Region 9320 (S25W61), a small A-type group,
produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1206 UTC associated with a Type II
radio sweep, but was otherwise stable. New Region 9326 (N27W27) was
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
sometime during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the
period. However, an isolated active period occurred during 26/0700 -
0900 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 166
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.