NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 26 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z

to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares

occurred from a variety of regions. The largest was an impulsive

C9/Sf at 26/1027 UTC in Region 9830 (S17W92). Regions 9842 (S19W49)

and 9846 (S03W68) continued to grow in sunspot number and area. Both

regions produced C-class activity during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 9830,

9842, or 9846.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Feb 208

Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  200/195/190

90 Day Mean        26 Feb 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01