Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Feb 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
February 26, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 26 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred from a variety of regions. The largest was an impulsive
C9/Sf at 26/1027 UTC in Region 9830 (S17W92). Regions 9842 (S19W49)
and 9846 (S03W68) continued to grow in sunspot number and area. Both
regions produced C-class activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 9830,
9842, or 9846.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 208
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 200/195/190
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.