NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Dec 2000
:Product: 1226RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Dec 26 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Two new regions were numbered today: 9288 (S21E26) and 9289 (S07E81). The latter produced an M1/SF east limb event at 26/1613 UTC. Other activity included several instances of low- and mid-level C-class activity, most of which was optically uncorrelated, but with Region 9283 (S11E24) indicated by SOHO/EIT data as a likely source for some of this activity. An active prominence on the southeast limb (S30E90) was observed late in the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9280 (N09W18), 9283, and 9289 all have potential for isolated M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic filed was quiet throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Dec 189 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 190/185/175 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 .
