NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated M1 observed at 26/1306 UTC.  Region
9591 (S19E18) continued to produce C-class flares during the period.
This region maintains its large area (740 millionths) and a
beta-gamma-delta Fki configuration.  New Region 9597 (N17E48) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9591 is capable of M-class events with potential
to produce a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to minor storm conditions on 27 and 28 August
as a result of the X5 event from 25 August.  Major storm conditions
are possible at high latitudes.  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on 29 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 190
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  195/200/200
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 153
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  035/035-030/030-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    20/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/15/05