NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Three M-class and two C9
events occurred during the period. The largest events were an M2/2N
from Region 9393 (N20E39) and an M2/1N from new Region 9401
(N22E55). Overall, activity increased noticeably during the
reporting period. Five new regions were numbered: 9398 (N20W10),
9399 (S30W09), 9400 (N11E20), 9401 (N22E55), and 9402 (N17E15).
Several different regions produced activity during the day and it
appears that the sun is entering into a highly active period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance of isolated event class events being
produced from several of the different active regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single,
isolated, mid-latitude period of active conditions occurring at
25/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, barring an Earth-directed CME.
Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 217
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  220/220/220
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  006/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/018-005/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01