NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. The most active
regions were 9503 (N16W86) and 9517 (S15W59). Region 9503 produced
the largest event of the period, a C3/Sf at 25/0027 UTC. Newly
numbered Region 9517 produced two C1 flares during the period.
Regions 9512 (S24W23) and 9513 (N22E31) showed a continued increase
in spot count but have yet to produce any significant activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions during the first day
of the period. Active conditions can be expected starting on the
second day of the period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole
and its resulting high speed stream impacting earth. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux can be expected to reach high levels during
the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 182
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  008/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01