Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Jul 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
July 25, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Activity remained low. Gradual decay occurred in Region
9543 (S23W58), which produced an isolated C-class subflare. Minor
spot growth occurred in Region 9553 (N13E08) early in the period.
The remaining active regions were small, stable, and simply
structured, including newly numbered Region 9556 (S07W42).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low. However, there will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9543.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to active levels
with brief minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes.
This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first day as
coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period as coronal
hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 133
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 155
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.