NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 25 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9794 (N13W03) produced

the largest flare of the past day, a C6/Sn at 25/0225 UTC. Region

9787 (S09W21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk

but is not particularly complex and has not produced major activity.

New Regions 9800 (N07E63) and 9801 (S03E77) rotated into view.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. C-level activity is expected to continue and there is a

small chance of an isolated M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Jan 235

Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  240/245/250

90 Day Mean        25 Jan 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  008/008-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01