Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 25, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent
C-class X-ray flares occurred. Regions 9311 (N05W86), 9313 (S07W27),
and newly numbered Region 9325 (N10E64) were responsible for most of
the flares, based on analysis of SOHO/EIT images. The largest flare
of the period was a C7 at 25/0713 UTC with SOHO/EIT images
indicating Region 9325 as the likely source. Region 9311 was
crossing the west limb as the period ended. The remaining regions
were stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels on the first day decreasing to low levels on
the last two days of the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    50/30/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 169
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.