NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 25 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1 flare which

occurred at 25/0257 UTC. No flare reports were received but SOHO

images suggest that Region 9830 (S18W79) was the source. This region

also produced several C-class subflares throughout the past day. It

remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but is rapidly

decaying. Regions 9842 (S19W36) and 9846 (S04W53) are growing.

Region 9846 also produced several C-class subflares. New Regions

9848 (S20E33) and 9849 (N23E69) were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 9830 appears capable of an additional M-class

flare before it rotates around the west limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Feb 211

Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  215/220/220

90 Day Mean        25 Feb 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices’’ÿû0AObserved Afr/Ap 24 Feb  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/005-007/007-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01